Understanding Simple Linear Regression

Understanding Simple Linear Regression

In nursing practice, the ability to predict future events or outcomes is crucial, and researchers calculate and report linear regression results as a basis for making these predictions. Linear regression provides a means to estimate or predict the value of a dependent variable based on the value of one or more independent variables. The regression equation is a mathematical expression of a causal proposition emerging from a theoretical framework. The linkage between the theoretical statement and the equation is made prior to data collection and analysis. Linear regression is a statistical method of estimating the expected value of one variable, y, given the value of another variable, x. The focus of this exercise is simple linear regression, which involves the use of one independent variable, x, to predict one dependent variable, y.

The regression line developed from simple linear regression is usually plotted on a graph, with the horizontal axis representing x (the independent or predictor variable) and the vertical axis representing the y (the dependent or predicted variable; see Figure 14-1). The value represented by the letter a is referred to as the y intercept, or the point where the regression line crosses or intercepts the y-axis. At this point on the regression line, x = 0. The value represented by the letter b is referred to as the slope, or the coefficient of x. The slope determines the direction and angle of the regression line within the graph. The slope expresses the extent to which y changes for every one-unit change in x. The score on variable y (dependent variable) is predicted from the subject’s known score on variable x (independent variable). The predicted score or estimate is referred to as Ŷ (expressed as y-hat) (Cohen, 1988; Grove, Burns, & Gray, 2013; Zar, 2010).